フランス銀行、2025年～2026年の成長およびインフレ見通しを下方修正

Answer: tighten the policy path with a clear, data-driven plan to cap risk and stabilize housing costs as inflation cools.

The Bank lowers its growth and inflation outlook for 2025–2026, then signals a gradual policy normalization anchored by data, with a framework that protects households and business activity across euro-area countries, and provides more room for data-driven revisions.

The main risk is a stubborn housing component that keeps consumer spending weak, while a softer climate in energy markets can ease import costs; in portugal and other countries the effects vary, driving a mixed regional outcome.

To support the forecast, the authority should utilise more granular indicators on credit quality, rental trends, and construction activity to detect stress pockets and tailor policy actions accordingly.

Movements in dollars and global demand remain driving forces; if external impulses soften, domestic inflation will ease further, allowing the central bank to adjust gradually and maintain credibility.

For your planning, apply a suite of practical steps: shield households with targeted debt relief, diversify funding sources, and build buffers; avoid moving policy down too quickly, then prepare for next-year adjustments as data evolve toward the long-term horizon across countries.

What the downgraded GDP projection means for small businesses in 2025–2026

Secure a 12-month working-capital cushion and renegotiate supplier terms now. Run three cash-flow calculations–base, downside, and shock–and keep them in a simple tables file for quick weekly checks. The september update lowers growth to an estimated 0.8% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, with inflation around 2.2% in 2025 easing to about 2.0% in 2026, and uncertainty continues as political and global factors shift. For the majority of small businesses, the size of the impact varies by sector, so plan for a sustainable mix of products and promotions, including premium cream-line items where demand remains resilient. Review purchased stock against revised forecasts, trim excess inventory, and prepare a contingency plan for peak-season and summer demand swings. A practical takeaway: lean staffing, flexible leases, and a well-structured suite of tools (tables, dashboards, and alerts) help keep liquidity intact even when demand cools.

Immediate actions for 2025–2026

Prioritize liquidity: secure a line of credit or short-term facility and ensure access if conditions tighten in september or later. Set a cash-buffer target equal to 2–3 months of fixed costs and run weekly cash-flow checks against the three scenarios. Accelerate receivables by offering 1–2% early-payment discounts to key clients, and negotiate longer terms with suppliers where possible (60 days or more). Explore a longlet financing option to spread large purchases–capex, equipment, and software–over 12–18 months, preserving day-to-day liquidity. Reduce non-essential purchases and postpone big expansions until forecasts show improvement. For shops with purchased inventory, align orders with revised demand and track progress in a dedicated tables sheet to spot gaps early. Focus on convenience-driven offerings and strengthening relationships with corporate clients who can stabilize volumes during slower periods. Highlights from the latest forecast point to improved outcomes when liquidity is kept robust and promotions align with main seasonal windows, including summer campaigns and september push.

Strategic adjustments for sustainable growth

Build a sustainable growth plan by diversifying revenue, expanding digital channels, and offering a suite of products aligned to customer needs. Focus on high-margin, essential goods (cream-tier items) and adjust pricing to reflect value rather than cost. Expand supplier diversity, including australian suppliers, to reduce risk exposure and consider input-cost hedges if you rely on imports. Plan with an olympic planning horizon–12 to 24 months–and maintain a rolling forecast updated monthly. Use a compact core of metrics–gross margin, days of working capital, and inventory turns–and review them in regular tables to detect trends early. This approach helps businesses of any size weather a softer economy, particularly those that keep liquidity strong and adapt quickly to shifts in demand. A longlet financing option can smooth large purchases while opportunities build in the next cycle. The september revision remains a reminder to stay vigilant and to act with deliberate pace.

How the new inflation path will affect consumer prices and wage negotiations

Recommendation: Align wage settlements with the updated inflation path and use a productivity-based baseline. In frances, target 2.0%–3.0% average wage gains in 2025 and 1.5%–2.5% in 2026, conditional on productivity and unemployment trends. Apply a standardised basket approach across brands and sectors, and set a clear date for quarterly negotiations so market expectations can adjust smoothly. The next data releases illustrate how the path into 2025–2026 will influence prices for food and purchased goods; households in Paris and the Île-de-France area may see tighter budgets on water and other essentials, while others may experience more moderate increases. Administrations can use tendering to curb costs in public procurement, and you can download the latest index data here to refine your plans and share insights with leaders across the eurozone.

Implications for consumer prices and budgets

• The new inflation path into 2025–2026 suggests slower price growth overall, with food and essential goods rising at modest rates and non-durables following a similar pattern. This supports a gradual improvement in purchasing power for those whose income tracks inflation closely.
• In paris and the Île-de-France region, price dynamics for services and everyday goods can diverge from other areas, making regional negotiation targets important. Consumers should monitor updates from administrations and market data to calibrate expectations for those households with high staple purchases.
• Prices for brands and goods may decline in some lines while rising in others; this dispersion underscores the value of a standardised basket and transparent date-based reviews to avoid mispricing in the next round of purchases.
• Public procurement through tendering can pull down certain costs, which will feed through into shop prices over time; those effects depend on the scale and timing of awarded contracts.
• Difficult-to-get items–staples and other scarce goods–could still show firmer prices if supply remains tight, especially in the eurozone and frances markets where supply chains adjust gradually.
• Households should prioritize plan-adjusted purchases, looking at items that historically drive budgets, such as food and essential goods, and using the latest index data to anticipate next-month moves; you can download the data here for precise budgeting.

Wage negotiations playbook

• Anchor wage talks to the new inflation path, aiming for 2.0%–3.0% in 2025 and 1.5%–2.5% in 2026, with mid-year reviews to adjust for actual price movements. This helps keep purchasing power stable for those in parishes like Paris and across the eurozone.
• Use a standardised approach when comparing across sectors and brands; align pay increases to productivity gains and avoid large divergences that could erode competitiveness in the market.
• Communicate clear date milestones for each negotiation cycle (date) and publish the results here to reduce uncertainty for households and leaders in administrations and large francophone employers.
• Account for regional differences by testing targets against data from Île-de-France and other regions; those with higher living costs may justify slightly higher adjustments, while others may need restraint.
• Include clauses that allow adjustments if the price path deviates from the forecast; this helps manage expectations in brands and supply chains across Frances and the market.
• Monitor the impact of tendering outcomes on wage settlements in sectors tied to public spending; resilience from the market side will depend on timely updates and transparent communication of the download data to workers and managers.

Political uncertainty: which events pose the biggest risks to business sentiment

Close watch on upcoming elections and regulatory decisions; embed three scenario plans into budgeting and procurement. Maintain a liquidity buffer for six to nine months and protect price pass-through across daily consumer goods. Form a cross-functional group to monitor sentiment and policy signals.

Recent publications show sentiment weak in consumer goods and manufacturing across 15 major markets; the daily reading slid by 6–8 percentage points in the last quarter. When decisions land, expect a 1–2 percentage-point shift in GDP expectations and a potential multi-billion hit to capex. Traders monitor the yuan for any sustained moves beyond a threshold, as currency equivalents affect import costs and export pricing.

Brand managers in beauty, milk, and drug sectors should plan price bands and communications to keep consumer trust; weak political signals can trigger a rush to protect margins.

Act now: build scenario dashboards, keep flexible supplier contracts, adjust inventory, track monthly news publications.

Key signals to watch include August policy talks, international trade updates, and group-level earnings calls. Monitor cross-border goods flows, including dairy and drug categories; watch which brands win sentiment and where a click in policy news changes consumer expectations.

Sector-specific impact: manufacturing, services, and construction during the downturn

Recommendation: deploy targeted, time-limited measures to stabilize cash flow across manufacturing, services, and construction. Extend supplier payments, offer working-capital support, and simplify permits. Build a visualisation dashboard that tracks unit-level indicators and adjusts measures in real time; published insights guide decisions for brands and contractors, then align expectations with quarterly updates.

Manufacturing dynamics

Rising input costs and higher interest rates compress margins. Manufacturing output fell 2.8% year on year in the latest quarter, with new orders down about 3.1%; production lines run at reduced capacity and inventory must be managed tightly. The yuan’s movements lift import costs, shaping pricing choices for brands. Then firms shift toward formats that shorten supply chains and lean production, while testing plant-based packaging to cut material costs. Energy and logistics remain expensive, pressuring profitability even when demand stabilises. Conversely, some discount brands gain share in value-focused segments, while premium players struggle more, underscoring the difference in strategy required across sub-sectors. This represents a tight-margin environment across consumer and industrial buyers. Public and military procurement acts as a partial stabiliser for a narrow set of suppliers, but cannot offset weaker demand elsewhere. To weather the cycle, companies should keep a basket of options and always track unit-level performance until demand recovers. Insights from the latest data show that a measured gain in efficiency can lift margins by roughly 0.6–1.0 percentage point when actions are coordinated.

Services and construction constraints

Services face softer consumption as higher borrowing costs bite discretionary spending and labour costs stay elevated. Latest published data indicate services activity declined about 1.8% year on year in the most recent month, while hospitality and transport services remain fragile and expectations for a quick rebound are uncertain. To support resilience, firms can use flexible staffing, smarter pricing, and smoother supplier interactions, with inspectorate-driven permit reforms helping to accelerate project starts. Construction activity weakens as residential investment cools and commercial projects stall; however, public works and infrastructure pockets can still show resilience where formats streamline bidding and delivery. Leasing costs and expensive materials push developers to lean on modular, prefab formats and to hedge yuan-linked import costs where relevant. Always align project pipelines with government expectations and pursue opportunities that reduce upfront capex while preserving quality. The difference across regions remains clear: faster permitting and streamlined approvals tend to precede a more visible uptick in activity. Brands that coordinate with inspectorate oversight and monitor a broad basket of indicators again tend to see steadier demand and a more beneficial trajectory.

Financing conditions and borrowing costs in a tighter environment

Lock in longer-term funding now to shield that business from rising costs. Financing conditions across departments have tightened, with above-average risk premia and spanish banks tightening lines for smaller borrowers, including players in the micro and SME segment.

During the first half of 2025, term loan spreads widened by roughly 40–70 basis points, respectively for large corporates and SMEs, with the trajectory continuing above pre-crisis levels. Covid-era frictions and ongoing uncertainty push lenders to demand stronger collateral. That potential tightening means businesses with light liquidity should plan additional buffers.

To navigate, firms should build a financing plan using a suite of scenarios across cash-flow projections, with early calculations for three-year horizons. Where appropriate, departments such as treasury, risk, and operations should coordinate with tsys to reassess covenants and pricing. A useful step is to lock in a portion of debt at fixed rates and to increase liquidity reserves that includes three months of operating expenses. Additionally, for spanish suppliers, consider supply-chain financing to smooth payment terms. That should be complemented by ongoing monitoring of spreads and liquidity positions, respectively.

Practical steps for firms: scenario planning, hedging, and cash flow management under the revised outlook

Implement a rolling 12-month forecast anchored to ecfin’s revised outlook, which ecfin contributed to, with three clearly defined points: base, downside, and upside. Use dashboards to translate inputs into general cash-flow metrics and everyday working-capital needs, and keep the paris finance team aligned through robust information-communication channels.

金利が上昇し、インフレが高止まりする中、基本シナリオは依然として脆弱なようです。ダウンサイドはより急激な成長ショックを想定し、アップサイドは国内需要と輸出の勢いの回復力を前提としています。見通しは引き続き懸念されており、不確実性は引き続きシナリオの規律を要求しています。潜在的な収益減速とコスト圧力に見積もり範囲を割り当てます。定義したら、毎月更新し、ダッシュボードでデルタをキャプチャします。

ヘッジ計画: 12か月間の為替予約を利用して国際取引を保護し、ボラティリティの高いエクスポージャーについてはオプションを検討してください。ヘッジを予測キャッシュフローに結び付け、通貨換算額をアカウントの予測と照らし合わせて追跡します。ポリシーが文書化され、四半期ごとに見直されていることを確認してください。

キャッシュフロー対策は、日々の業務に焦点を当てます。売掛金の回収を加速させ、仕入先との条件を再交渉し、関係を損なわない範囲で支払いを可能な限り延長します。不要不急の経費や無駄を削減し、中核業務に貢献しない付属品を区別し、解放された現金を持続可能な投資や優先度の高いプロジェクトに再配分します。

ガバナンスとプロセスにより、情報伝達が緊密に保たれるようにする：毎週のキャッシュポジションと、パリ財務リーダーシップおよびECFINリエゾンとの月次予測レビューを確立する。 承認されたスタッフのアカウントおよび財務システムを管理し、ダッシュボードを最新の状態に保ち、一般的な可視性を高く維持し、迅速な意思決定を可能にする。

このアプローチは依然として非常に実行可能であり、改訂された見通しによって提起された懸念に留意しながら、国際的なエクスポージャー、金利リスク、および日常的な流動性に対処しているように思われます。引き続き3つのポイントを監視し、定期的に見積もりを修正し、無駄を避けて柔軟性を維持するために、規律あるコスト管理を維持してください。